Will conference usa survive

 The Conference USA (C-USA) is on the hinges of collapse. Nine of its fourteen members have announced their decisions to part for better conferences, ones with more money and/or exposure. Now, the conference has to formulate a plan to remain in existence before they lose the rest of their schools.

It has been a tough couple of weeks for the long-standing group-of-five conference, founded in 1996. First, the announcement came that six schools would part with the conference to join the American Athletic Conference (AAC), replacing the three schools that recently announced their departure for the Big 12. In the following two weeks, Southern Mississippi first announced their departure for the Sun Belt conference, quickly followed by Old Dominion and Marshall.

Currently, there are five schools still waiting to make decisions regarding the future of their athletic departments.

• Florida International
• Louisiana Tech
• Middle Tennessee State
• Texas El-Paso
• Western Kentucky

How can the C-USA save itself?

Start making decisions – now

Part of the reason why Marshall decided to leave the program was because of the lack of optimism surrounding the C-USA. The Herald-Dispatch reported that sources with knowledge on the move explained that Marshall officials felt that stability was a major issue.

The C-USA was waiting on the Marshall decision before proceeding to decide how many schools they wanted to invite. I think that this hesitancy led them to lose Marshall. If the C-USA had a plan and had made it known to Marshall before their meeting, I think there’s a strong chance that they could have retained the school.

Conference USA is adding four new members in Liberty, New Mexico State, Sam Houston and Jacksonville State, the league announced Friday. The schools are expected to begin play in the league in 2023.

“We are incredibly excited about adding these four new members and feel there is tremendous upside in these moves for our conference,” Conference USA commissioner Judy MacLeod said in a release. “This is a quality mix of established and emerging universities that provides us with a compelling group to continue to build with, focusing on competing for and winning championships well into the future. We have been deliberate in our efforts for the past few weeks to get us to this point and will continue to evaluate and consider our additional options for membership.”

C-USA has been in a scramble since conference realignment saw the league lose nine of its 14 current members, a number that could reach 11. Six left for the American Athletic Conference (Charlotte, FAU, North Texas, Rice, UAB and UTSA), three left for the Sun Belt (Marshall, Old Dominion, Southern Miss) and two may leave for the MAC.

This move gets C-USA up to nine full-time members, although the status of Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee is up in the air as the MAC considers adding them. At least eight members are required to be an FBS conference, although a two-year grace period is allowed if a conference falls below that number.

Throughout all of the movement, C-USA always planned to survive and continue as an FBS conference, and it has talked with dozens of schools about membership. As of Friday, the only remaining members were FIU, Louisiana Tech, UTEP, WKU and MTSU. The league believes the combination all of those departures could help jump-start the reformed league with at least $18 million in exit fees to be used.

In losing so many members, the league first looked to stabilize itself by grabbing current FBS independent schools. The Athletic first reported last week that C-USA was in talks with NMSU, Liberty and UConn (football only), all of which are football independents. UMass, another independent, has been hoping for an invitation. Sources have said the Minutemen are under consideration. UConn is still weighing its options.

If WKU and MTSU join the MAC, this won’t be the last move for C-USA. As mentioned, it needs eight members to remain an FBS conference. UConn and UMass could be options. The league also has talked with a number of other FCS schools that would like to make the move up as well, such as Tarleton State, Eastern Kentucky and Stephen F. Austin. If WKU and MTSU stay, the league may stick with nine for the time being.

One factor C-USA likes about the new organization of the league is that it’s adding four schools that really want to be in the conference. The league has lacked an identity and single-mindedness in recent years, but the additions through all this realignment could help get everyone on the same page.

The first phase is when the big dogs, i.e. the Power Five, eat their own, shift bodies around, and invite a select few to join their ranks. Like clockwork, Oklahoma and Texas's jump to the Southeastern Conference, triggered the vulnerable Big 12 to gobble up American Athletic Conference schools Central Florida, Cincinnati, Houston and FBS football independent BYU to join their ranks.

Phase two is when the middling FBS conferences grab on to the nearest life raft they can find to survive. The AAC snared Florida Atlantic, Rice, Texas-San Antonio, Charlotte, North Texas and UAB from Conference USA to stay above water.

The third phase is the desperation phase. This is when the dregs of FBS grab whatever school they can get to survive. And this phase is the one that starts to hit close to home.

If you haven't been paying attention, C-USA is the slow gazelle that the lion's above them have feasted upon. And even some of their own gazelles have come in for a bite too.

C-USA is down to five left-behinders — Western Kentucky, Florida International, UTEP, Louisiana Tech and Middle Tennessee State. A five-team conference is not enough bids to get an automatic bid in any NCAA Tournament sport.

That conference is in this state because fellow FBS bottom-feeder, the Sun Belt Conference gobbled up Southern Miss (official on Tuesday) and is expected to also steal Old Dominion and Marshall from the husk of C-USA. The Sun Belt is also expected to invite FCS power James Madison.

That last bit is worth paying attention to because this is where it starts to come home for fans in our neck of the woods.

C-USA is clinging for life. There aren't many FBS options left for them. When this happens, the fertile fields desperate conferences go to are to the FCS Division, where they try to hook the latest sucker into thinking there's a pot of football gold at the end of the rainbow.

Sure enough, rumors were out there on Monday that Missouri State is a possible option for C-USA. It's not a surprise at all because Missouri Valley Football Conference schools were mentioned during the last round of realignment in the early 2010s. 

The Sun Belt was so desperate that they even kicked the tires on Indiana State, which then-ISU AD Ron Prettyman confirmed to the Tribune-Star at the time. It was probably no more than a courtesy check-in — ISU, then and now, is nowhere near ready for FBS football, the state of Memorial Stadium alone is a disqualifying demerit — but it goes to show how far conferences will go to maintain survival.

Naturally, Missouri State's mention in these rumors gets its fans fired up. The media in Springfield, Mo. has already addressed it — mostly from a positive point of view. People always assume bigger is better.

Is it, though? I've never thought it made much sense at all.

There are benefits, but benefits that have consequences. You get a higher payout for buy games. ISU was paid $500,000 to play at Northwestern in September. Ohio University, from the Mid-American Conference, was paid $900,000 to play in Evanston later in the month.

There are potential bowl payouts. There is usually a media payout, though C-USA's media deal (and exposure) is easily the worst among FBS leagues, still, it's more lucrative than the MVC/MVFC's deal.

Sounds great, doesn't it! Problem is? Most of that money is sucked straight back into the costs of doing business at the FBS level.

Salaries are far higher and coaching staffs are bigger. The recruiting budget has to be increased to stay competitive. Those bowl payouts? Often shared among conference members and sometimes pared down to fulfill a required ticket allotment from the organizer. Many schools lose money on bowl games, according to a 2020 USA Today story, 10 to 20 schools come out financially behind.

Most schools count scholarships as a cost. FBS football offers 18 more scholarships over FCS. That's means 18 more you have to account for elsewhere to be Title IX compliant.

In a geographic freak show that C-USA will be, the costs of transporting other sports sky-rockets. The longest conference trip Missouri State currently has is to Valparaiso. There are only three conference trips inside C-USA that would be shorter for the Bears.

Oh, and your other sports, like Missouri State's excellent women's basketball team and much-improved men's team? Enjoy one-bid hell in the shell of what's left of C-USA.

Then, you have to consider what you're jumping into purely from a football standpoint. Take it from someone who's an alum of a low-end Next Five school — it ain't all that.

My alma mater had its greatest season in 2008. Ball State was ranked in the top 25. It was undefeated in the regular season before it was upset in the conference championship game. The reward for that? A trip to a Jan. 6 bowl game in Mobile, Ala. that absolutely no one cared about. And even if the conference title had been won, the reward would have been a trip to another non-entity bowl game in Toronto.

All of that cost. All of the sacrifice. For that? And that season had virtually no staying power. Attendance reverted back to the announced low 10,000s (truthfully, more like high four-figures) in no time flat. Enthusiasm waned as quickly as it waxed.

At least in FCS, you have a playoff and a championship to aspire to. At the bell end of FBS? You basically exist to create off-time programming for ESPN and Fox. Say hello to mid-week games that are terrible for long-time ticketholders and for fans who want something to do on a Saturday. 

I think of at least three other sports at Missouri State — men's basketball, women's basketball and baseball — before I do football in terms of both success and fan interest. Crowds at Plaster Stadium will peak at times, but I've been down there when the stadium was an empty as ours is at its worst.

The best place for Missouri State is where it is — in the Missouri Valley Conference — where it's established itself as a respected member in multiple sports, including its flagship basketball programs. It makes geographic sense and it's cost-effective. 

Mad Max put it best it best in Fury Road. "That's bait," he said upon seeing an obvious trap. I hope Missouri State and its fans (and those at other MVC schools that might be tempted) realize that they're the marks the desperate FBS dregs are trying to sucker. C-USA grass isn't greener, it's the crab grass of FBS conferences.